Season 2-Coronation, Incineration Predictions, Preseason Standings

Three significant figures generally used. Images created courtesy of LibreOffice Calc.
Information gathered from enterprising individuals of the Blaseball Maincord and SIBR discord.

Prediction 1: Incinerations, Main Season

How many players will be incinerated from active play, from the 24 teams, during the main 90 days of the season? This will only count incinerations in specific. New and innovative ways to die will not be counted, and I will assume that incinerations are lethal.

In Season 2β, 16 players from 20 teams were incinerated over 99 days.
In Season 3β, 26 players from 20 teams were incinerated over 99 days.

Histogram of the predictions for the number of main-season incinerations

Minimum: 0
Maximum: 90
Mean: 17.6
Median: 15.5
Mode: 24
σ: 11.1

I would argue that this is unimodal around one-team's-worth-of-incinerating, but with the odd spike at 24.

There are interesting gaps at some odd numbers, but I think it's the small sample size. Not sure what's up with 13.

Prediction 2: Incinerations, Bonus

How many players will be incinerated over season 2 (NEW), outside of the main season?
This will primarily count the postseason and election results.

Histogram of the predictions for the number of other incinerations

Minimum: 0
Maximum: 27
Mean: 4.60
Median: 3
Mode: 2
σ: 5.16

A much tighter set of predictions. After all, there aren't many opportunities for death outside the main season.

That said, some are predicting... maybe one or two whole teams being incinerated? Who knows. Maybe each team gets some fun in the elections.

Prediction 3: Alternations

Star player Terrell Bradley's alternate is called.
How many players in active play will become alternated over the 90 days of the main season?

Histogram of the predictions for the number of alternations

Minimum: 0
Maximum: 28
Mean: 6.17
Median: 5
Mode: 0
σ: 5.90

That's almost uniform between 1 and 15! A plurality of people picked 0 alternations though.

Prediction 4: Zephyr McCloud Is Hecking Cursed

Star player Zephyr McCloud is Cursed.
How many deaths will be directly attributable to Zephyr McCloud over the 90 days of the main season?

Histogram of the predictions for the number of deaths attributable to Zephyr McCloud

Minimum: 0
Maximum: 45 or 180, depending on taste
Mean: 3.32
Median: 1
Mode: 0
σ: 6.14

By far the most popular theory is that Zephyr will feedback onto the winning team, so the most popular guess is that Zephyr won't kill anyone.

But... what if Zephyr incinerates someone whenever the Tigers lose? (the 45 guess). What if... what if... Well, I don't know how you get to 180. Please call me.

Prediction 5: Shadows

Star player Simon Haley Swears in.
How many players will enter the shadows from active play over the 90 days of the main season?

Histogram of the predictions for the number of shadowings

Minimum: 0
Maximum: 37
Mean: 8.96
Median: 6
Mode: 0
σ: 8.41

Nine people were collided into the shadows this past season (well OK, one was in the postseason), and... surprisingly, that's also the average of the predictions for next season? And yet, nobody picked exactly nine.

I'll claim that most people think there won't be that many additional shadowings, and that the bigger factor is weathers other than Horizon finally appearing.

Prediction 6: Vibes and Jazz Hands

Breckenridge Breaks.
What's your vibe on Jazz Hands' calamitous fate over the course of the next season?

Histogram of the predictions for vibes on the upcoming fate of the Jazz Hands, on a scale from 1 (Normal) to 10 (Oh god, oh no)

Scale of 1 to 10
Mean: 4.51
Median: 3
Mode: 3
σ: 2.96

Best of luck, Jazz Hands. Get well soon, Sim permitting.

Prediction 7: Free-for-all

Free form prediction, 60 character limit. Make it hot, no scope, aim high.

Withheld until end of season, but shoutouts to this one extra-specific prediction:

Good luck, Parker the first!